4.25.25
obsession + deep understanding, manufacturing startup models, AI for interpersonal conflict, in search of a new model for hardware investing
Hello there from sunny LA! If I’m being honest, this week’s musings were a bit of a struggle. I honestly thought about not publishing bc I just didn’t feel like they did this week justice, but as Kevin Gee likes to remind me, in writing, so much of it is about consistency and accountability. Just doing it when you don’t feel like doing it. Feels like a lot of life is like that. *pensive face*
It’s been an insanely busy week and for the first time, one of my musings (last one below) turned into an incredibly long, rambly essay. Turns out that when I write an essay, I’m really not comfortable enough pushing it out on first (or even third!) edit. I’m holding myself ACCOUNTABLE (there that word is again!) and so next week’s weekly musing will likely take the form of that essay. As such, my request is if you have thoughts on how you think about investing in hardware startups (e.g. not software only), please do hit me up. Much more to come here-next week! And with that, my lukewarm musings…
🍞 Focus > Obsession > Deeply Understanding: Piggybacking on last week's brief discussion of Focus, I listened to Rick Rubin's interview of Palmer Luckey on Tetragrammaton and holy shit, Palmer's clarity of thought is incredible. He has this rare ability to go all-in with obsessive, tunnel-vision focus, yet still understand the broader world through a first-principles lens. When you hear the story of Oculus, it’s just so damn apparent. He had this intense, singular focus but it was paired with a systems-levels understanding. He can break anything down into its most basic level, square 0, and the rebuild the concept in a way that makes radically more sense (but rooted in the learnings of what was there before). Just next level of deep understanding, curiosity, and a conviction in a different type of reality that should exist. Really cool and honestly made me hear founder pitches differently this week.
Manufacturing Startup Models: Thought Justin Lopas wrote a great piece here:
on the different business models for manufacturing. I think also he aptly calls out these are different than a company that develops a particular product and does final assembly themselves. Three models: MSaaS (although tbh i would just count this as good ole vSaaS so pretty easy to grok and understand), Making parts for other people, or change the way the part is made. I don’t think (at least for me), the first is interesting to dive into bc its largely vertical software which I’ve spent my entirely venture career looking at. The framework there for me is solid. The other two are where I’m increasingly intrigued by - really understanding the unit economics and how these businesses go from 0 to 1 to scale.
Using AI for interpersonal conflict: I saw this tweet from Shweta and funny enough I also had been thinking about this back in Feb. In some ways, I think AI will very much hurt our interpersonal relationships, but in some ways I do think it can really help. Particularly as a “thought-partner” (weird to say) to help navigate real-world situations. I was having a conflict with someone this week and I tested it out: explaining what was happening and going back and forth on possible resolutions. Honestly, it was fantastic. The suggestions it gave me and how it reasoned through my options were better than a human would have done (I think). I do have to imagine its quite one-sided bc the output is only what I used to prompt it, but nevertheless. This is and will continue to be more and more of a thing. Also, anytime I talk about relationships and AI, I can't help but think about this post by James Hong. The Fuckpocalypse.
In search of a new mental model for hardware investing: Oh man, I have been obsessing over this for the last several weeks. I've spent my entire career investing in software, albeit my investments have some real world operations problem they are tackling. It feels like with AI especially and marginal costs/differentiation of software dropping significantly, now is the time to broaden my aperture and embrace more hardware plays. Thank you to those this week who I chatted about this with (the list continues to grow!). It has been so immensely helpful. There is so much to unpack here that next weeks musing will be entirely dedicated to this, but I really think I’m getting somewhere and I’m excited to share how i’m starting to think about it next week.
With that, an oldie but goodie:
Stay Weird. Stay Curious.
-CB